{"title":"债券共同基金和交易所交易基金在压力市场中的流动——不稳定假说的实证研究","authors":"Stephen Laipply, Ananth Madhavan","doi":"10.3905/jfi.2022.1.151","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The proposed mechanism for what we term the destabilization hypothesis is that an exogenous shock triggers large redemptions by fund investors, requiring fund managers to sell securities to raise cash, leading to further drops in security prices and increased systemic risk. Although a large body literature finds little evidence of fund-driven fire-sales in bond markets, the destabilization hypothesis has seen renewed interest among academics and policymakers in the context of bond funds. We examine the impact of shocks on US bond fund flows by sub-asset class and by type of investment vehicle. The time-series analysis we conducted shows that a risk-off shock to markets does not necessarily result in large bond fund outflows. Accordingly, we conclude that there is little evidence that bond funds are a source of systemic risk, particularly bond exchange-traded funds. We also find no evidence of a non-linear response of flows to large shocks.","PeriodicalId":53711,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Fixed Income","volume":" ","pages":"6 - 19"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2022-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Bond Mutual Fund and Exchange-Traded Fund Flows in Stressed Markets: Empirical Evidence on the Destabilization Hypothesis\",\"authors\":\"Stephen Laipply, Ananth Madhavan\",\"doi\":\"10.3905/jfi.2022.1.151\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The proposed mechanism for what we term the destabilization hypothesis is that an exogenous shock triggers large redemptions by fund investors, requiring fund managers to sell securities to raise cash, leading to further drops in security prices and increased systemic risk. Although a large body literature finds little evidence of fund-driven fire-sales in bond markets, the destabilization hypothesis has seen renewed interest among academics and policymakers in the context of bond funds. We examine the impact of shocks on US bond fund flows by sub-asset class and by type of investment vehicle. The time-series analysis we conducted shows that a risk-off shock to markets does not necessarily result in large bond fund outflows. Accordingly, we conclude that there is little evidence that bond funds are a source of systemic risk, particularly bond exchange-traded funds. We also find no evidence of a non-linear response of flows to large shocks.\",\"PeriodicalId\":53711,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Fixed Income\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"6 - 19\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-12-20\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Fixed Income\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3905/jfi.2022.1.151\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Fixed Income","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3905/jfi.2022.1.151","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Bond Mutual Fund and Exchange-Traded Fund Flows in Stressed Markets: Empirical Evidence on the Destabilization Hypothesis
The proposed mechanism for what we term the destabilization hypothesis is that an exogenous shock triggers large redemptions by fund investors, requiring fund managers to sell securities to raise cash, leading to further drops in security prices and increased systemic risk. Although a large body literature finds little evidence of fund-driven fire-sales in bond markets, the destabilization hypothesis has seen renewed interest among academics and policymakers in the context of bond funds. We examine the impact of shocks on US bond fund flows by sub-asset class and by type of investment vehicle. The time-series analysis we conducted shows that a risk-off shock to markets does not necessarily result in large bond fund outflows. Accordingly, we conclude that there is little evidence that bond funds are a source of systemic risk, particularly bond exchange-traded funds. We also find no evidence of a non-linear response of flows to large shocks.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Fixed Income (JFI) provides sophisticated analytical research and case studies on bond instruments of all types – investment grade, high-yield, municipals, ABSs and MBSs, and structured products like CDOs and credit derivatives. Industry experts offer detailed models and analysis on fixed income structuring, performance tracking, and risk management. JFI keeps you on the front line of fixed income practices by: •Staying current on the cutting edge of fixed income markets •Managing your bond portfolios more efficiently •Evaluating interest rate strategies and manage interest rate risk •Gaining insights into the risk profile of structured products.