将温室气体排放与喀麦隆经济增长脱钩

Jean Engo
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引用次数: 6

摘要

了解脱钩指标及其决定因素有助于制定有针对性的政策建议。为此,本文应用Log-Mean Divisia指数和Tapio模型研究了1971-2014年喀麦隆经济增长与温室气体排放之间的脱钩关系。分析是根据喀麦隆独立后的三个主要时期进行的,脱钩指标被分解为七个因素,同时考虑到该国排放的三种主要温室气体(即CO2、CH4和N2O)。结果表明,喀麦隆在1971-1984年和1994-2014年期间分别出现了弱脱钩、强脱钩和强负脱钩,这三个时期分别代表了经济危机前后的时期。除了这三种脱钩状态外,隐性脱钩只出现在经济危机时期(1984-1994)。从1971年到1984年以及从1994年到2014年,碳强度、经济活动、人口和排放因素不仅导致喀麦隆温室气体(特别是二氧化碳)排放量的增加,而且阻止了脱钩。与1984-1994年不同,1971-1984年和1994-2014年期间,能源强度有助于减少环境污染,同时促进脱钩。尽管所有这些都在脱钩中发挥了重要作用,但我们发现,自2007年将天然气引入该国能源结构后,可再生能源对缓解喀麦隆二氧化碳排放的影响仍然高于化石燃料的替代。然而,为了发展清洁经济,喀麦隆应保持适度的经济增长,不断转变经济发展道路,同时鼓励使用可再生能源,进一步降低人均单位国内生产总值的能源强度。
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Decoupling greenhouse gas emissions from economic growth in cameroon
Knowledge of decoupling indicators and its determinants is useful for formulating targeted policy recommendations. To this end, the Log-Mean Divisia Index and Tapio models were applied in this paper to study the decoupling relationship among economic growth and GHG emissions in Cameroon over the period 1971-2014. The analyzes were conducted according to the three major periods that marked Cameroon after independence and the decoupling indicators were broken down into seven factors while considering the three main GHGs emitted in this country (i.e. CO2, CH4, and N2O). The results showed that weak decoupling, strong decoupling, and strong negative decoupling occurred in Cameroon during the periods 1971-1984 and 1994-2014 which represent the periods before and after the economic crisis, respectively. In addition to these three decoupling statuses, recessive decoupling only appeared during the economic crisis period (1984-1994). From 1971 to 1984 and between 1994 and 2014, carbon intensity, economic activity, population, and emission factor not only contributed to the increase of Cameroon’s GHG (particularly CO2) emissions but also prevented decoupling. Unlike the period 1984-1994, energy intensity contributed to reducing environmental pollution while promoting decoupling during the periods 1971-1984 and 1994-2014. Although all played an important role in decoupling, we found that after the introduction of natural gas into the country’s energy mix from 2007, the effect of renewable energies on the mitigation of Cameroon’s CO2 emissions remained higher than the substitution of fossil fuels. However, to develop a cleaner economy, Cameroon should maintain modest economic growth and continuously transform economic development pathways, while encouraging the use of renewable energy to further reduce energy intensity per unit of GDP per capita.
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