President Putin: A holy mad man or a brave but trapped chicken in Ukraine?

Abstract To choose an effective strategy to stop Putin and Russia’s aggressive ambitions in Ukraine and in wider Eastern Europe, Western political and military leaders need to understand his modus operandi and strategic logic. This article focuses on the benefits of game theory in explaining the behavior of the warring parties in Ukraine. It argues that, from an initial “mad man” or a game of chicken strategy chosen by Putin, he has been forced to gradually shift toward a less promising dollar auction model. If the mad man strategy was meant to deter opposing powers from testing Putin’s limits, now the dominant game has locked Putin into a self-driven game with ever higher bids and complications for any exit. For an effective response from the West, the key elements are the Ukrainian will to fight but also the brinkmanship of the West in choosing the right moment to force the Kremlin out of the game.