中央银行改革与通货膨胀的因果关系——来自发展中国家的证据

C. J. Anwar, Okot Nicholas
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引用次数: 1

摘要

这项研究为37个发展中国家的央行改革与通货膨胀动态之间的关系提供了证据。我们使用面板结构断裂检验和Granger非因果检验对40年来的年度通货膨胀和央行独立性法律指数(CBI)进行了检验,作为央行改革的代表。实证结果表明,央行独立性对通胀稳定具有积极影响。此外,我们发现中央银行改革与通货膨胀之间存在双向因果关系。这些发现表明,中央银行的独立性有利于持续的宏观经济稳定,应该在发展中国家中发挥作用。特别是,改革的设计应该赋予中央银行在执行货币政策和金融部门监管方面更多的自主权。JEL分类:E31,E58如何引用:Anwar,C.J.和Nicholas,O.(2020)。中央银行改革和通货膨胀之间的因果关系:来自发展中国家的证据。签名:Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi,第9卷(1),15-30。doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v9i1.10955.
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Causality Relationship between Central Bank Reforms and Inflation: Evidence from Developing Countries
This study provides evidence on the relationship between central bank reforms and inflation dynamics in a sample of 37 developing countries. We use panel structural break test and Granger non ‐ causality tests on annual inflation and the legal index of central bank independence (CBI), as a proxy of central bank reform, over 40 years period. The empirical results indicate a positive effect of central bank independence on inflation stabilization. Besides, we find that there exists bi-directional causality between central bank reforms and inflation. These findings suggest that central bank independence is beneficial in terms of sustained macroeconomic stabilization and should harness among developing countries. In particular, reforms should design to give central banks more autonomy in the conduct of monetary policy and financial sector regulation.  JEL Classifications: E31, E58 How to Cite: Anwar, C. J., & Nicholas, O. (2020). Causality Relationship Between Central Bank Reforms and Inflation: Evidence from Developing Countries. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi , Vol. 9(1), 15-30. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v9i1.10955.
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发文量
30
审稿时长
8 weeks
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