Afghanistan’s Political Settlement Puzzle: The Impact of the Breakdown of Afghan Political Parties to an Elite Polity System (2001–2021)

Abstract: The rapid collapse of the Afghan Republic in August 2021 was in part the result of two decades of disintegrating political parties at the hands of former Presidents Karzai and Ghani. After the 2001 US intervention, political parties did not play a significant role in the politics of Afghanistan. The country’s nascent democracy experienced major shifts in the aftermath of the US intervention, largely concerning the behaviour and structure of its parties, which impacted the government’s prospects of reaching a political settlement. In this period, politics began to shift toward a more elite-centric model. By applying a political settlement conceptual framework and case studies, especially with reference to the presidential elections, this article argues that the transformation to an elite-centric model intensified political rivalries in Afghanistan. The resulting polarisation consequently had decreased Afghanistan’s chances of reaching a political settlement, an essential component of state-building in this fragile, linguistically fragmented country with multiple politico-military factions.