全面衰退:COVID - 19的私人成本与社会成本[j]杨思强。杨感谢天津市哲学社会科学规划基金(TJYJQN22‐003)的资助。

IF 1.5 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS International Economic Review Pub Date : 2023-08-29 DOI:10.1111/iere.12667

Juan-Carlos Cordoba, Marla Ripoll, Siqiang Yang

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摘要

2020年官方经济衰退数据忽略了因COVID - 19造成的生命损失。本文构建了考虑死亡人数的全面衰退测度。我们的模型具有非预期的效用、休闲、年龄特异性生存率和可处理的异质性。我们发现，全面衰退的平均幅度为10.7%，这反映了消费总下降2.7%的净值，休闲时间平均增加了197个小时，大流行第一年的死亡人数约为54万人。不同年龄的人对全面衰退的看法差异很大，功利主义规划者的衰退率为14.5%，与50多岁的人的衰退率一致。这篇文章受版权保护。版权所有

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THE FULL RECESSION: PRIVATE VERSUS SOCIAL COSTS OF COVID-19

2020 official recession figures ignore the costs associated with the loss of human life due to COVID-19. This article constructs full recession measures that consider the death toll. Our model features nonexpected utility, leisure, age-specific survival rates, and tractable heterogeneity. We find an average full recession of 10.7%, which reflects the net value of an aggregate drop in consumption of 2.7%, an average increase of 197 leisure hours and about 540,000 lives lost in the first pandemic year. The full recession for a utilitarian planner is 14.5%, which aligns with that of individuals in their late 50s.

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来源期刊

International Economic Review ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The International Economic Review was established in 1960 to provide a forum for modern quantitative economics. From its inception, the journal has tried to stimulate economic research around the world by publishing cutting edge papers in many areas of economics, including econometrics, economic theory, macro, and applied economics.

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