COVID-19的不确定性和货币政策应对:来自新兴市场经济体的证据

Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Pub Date : 2022-02-18 DOI:10.21098/bemp.v24i4.1692

K. Prabheesh, Solikin M. Juhro, C. Harun

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引用次数: 21

摘要

本文考察了新冠肺炎疫情期间新兴经济体货币政策传导的有效性。该研究利用14个受疫情严重影响的新兴经济体的数据和协整的自回归分布滞后方法，检验了货币政策在影响产出、通货膨胀和信贷方面的有效性。研究发现：（1）在大多数经济体中，由于新冠肺炎疫情造成的不确定性，货币政策对通货膨胀的传导减弱；（2）在少数几个经济体中，传导在稳定信贷和产出方面是有效的；以及（3）新冠肺炎疫情的爆发促使经济主体采取“谨慎”或“观望”的方法。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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COVID-19 UNCERTAINTY AND MONETARY POLICY RESPONSES: EVIDENCE FROM EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES

This paper examines the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in emerging economies during the COVID-19 outbreak. Using data from 14 emerging economies severely affected by the pandemic and the autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration, the study examines the effectiveness of monetary policy in affecting output, inflation, and credit. The study finds that: (1) In most economies, the monetary policy transmission to inflation is weakened due to the uncertainty created by the COVID-19 pandemic; (2) in a few economies, the transmission is found to be effective in stabilizing credit and output; and (3) the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic induced economic agents to follow a “cautionary” or “wait and see” approach.

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