斯洛文尼亚人口发展与土地利用变化之间的关系

IF 1.3 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Acta Geographica Slovenica-Geografski Zbornik Pub Date : 2020-12-31 DOI:10.3986/AGS.7611
Uroš Horvat, Igor Žiberna
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引用次数: 3

摘要

本文的重点是确定斯洛文尼亚土地利用变化与人口发展之间的相关性程度。作者得出的结论是,文献中仍然没有足够的证据表明这两个过程之间的相关性,因为涉及这些联系的定量研究非常罕见,而且大多涵盖小而具体的领域。就斯洛文尼亚而言,Spearman的相关系数相当低,这证实了土地利用变化过程是复杂的,不仅仅取决于个人人口和社会经济因素。尽管相关系数较低,但我们的研究结果表明,土地利用的变化受到年龄结构和人口增长变化的显著影响。在人口增长的地区,可耕地的比例正在缩小,而在人口减少和老龄化指数上升的地区,部分杂草丛生的土地的比例正在增长。在以下分析中,作者将分析重点放在对穆拉和斯洛文尼亚中部统计区的个案研究上,这两个统计区在发展方面处于相反的两极,因此在土地利用变化方面显示出不同的趋势。
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The correlation between demographic development and land-use changes in Slovenia
The paper focuses on determining the degree of correlation between land-use changes and demographic development in Slovenia. The authors conclude that there is still insufficient evidence in the literature for a correlation between these two processes, because quantitative studies addressing these links are very rare and mostly cover small and specific areas. In the case of Slovenia, Spearman’s correlation coefficients are quite low, which confirms that land-use change processes are complex and not dependent solely on individual demographic and socioeconomic factors. Despite the low correlation coefficients, our findings indicate that changes in land use are significantly influenced by changes in age structure and population growth. In areas with population growth the share of arable land is shrinking, whereas in areas with depopulation and a rising aging index the share of partially overgrown land is growing. In the following analysis, the authors focus their analysis on a case study of the Mura and Central Slovenia statistical regions, which lie on opposite poles with regard to development, and thus show differing trends in land-use changes.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.60
自引率
35.30%
发文量
15
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Acta geographica Slovenica publishes original research papers from all fields of geography and related disciplines, and provides a forum for discussing new aspects of theory, methods, issues, and research findings, especially in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe. The review accepts original research papers and review papers. Papers presenting new developments and innovative methods in geography are welcome. Submissions should address current research gaps and explore state-of-the-art issues. Research based on case studies should have the added value of transnational comparison and should be integrated into established or new theoretical and conceptual frameworks. The target readership is researchers, policymakers, students, and others who are studying or applying geography at various levels. Submissions are accepted in English or Slovenian.
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