{"title":"评论","authors":"M. Reguant","doi":"10.1086/718669","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Barnett, Brock, and Hansen build a theoretical and quantitative framework to incorporate concepts of uncertainty and ambiguity aversion to climate policy modeling. Their primary focus is on building a tractable dynamic model that includes uncertainty about carbon dynamics, temperature dynamics, and damage functions in a parsimonious way. Their model features state-of-the-art tools in asset pricing with a continuoustimemodel, emphasizing specific processes of uncertainty, such as regime changes (jump processes) and misspecified Brownian increments. This model extends the authors’ previous work (Barnett, Brock, and Hansen 2020). Climate carbon and temperature dynamics follow scientific inputs that combine various climatemodels (Joos et al. 2013). The static economic game is simple, focused on investment and consumption choices over time. There are no explicit prices. The use of emissions in production, which are costly from a climate-change perspective, largely determines the shadow price of consumption. The paper presented by Barnett et al. is a serious attempt at modeling uncertainty from a mathematical point of view. A comprehensive treatment of uncertainty surrounding climate change, such as the one proposed in this paper, seems warranted. I agree that there are significant uncertainties to be studied, particularly regarding the ability of humanity to adapt and mitigate the change (policy and economic uncertainty) as well as surrounding the possibility of major tipping points (Cai et al. 2015; Lemoine and Traeger 2016). Indeed, the authors find that uncertainty","PeriodicalId":51680,"journal":{"name":"Nber Macroeconomics Annual","volume":"36 1","pages":"321 - 328"},"PeriodicalIF":7.5000,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Comment\",\"authors\":\"M. Reguant\",\"doi\":\"10.1086/718669\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Barnett, Brock, and Hansen build a theoretical and quantitative framework to incorporate concepts of uncertainty and ambiguity aversion to climate policy modeling. Their primary focus is on building a tractable dynamic model that includes uncertainty about carbon dynamics, temperature dynamics, and damage functions in a parsimonious way. Their model features state-of-the-art tools in asset pricing with a continuoustimemodel, emphasizing specific processes of uncertainty, such as regime changes (jump processes) and misspecified Brownian increments. This model extends the authors’ previous work (Barnett, Brock, and Hansen 2020). Climate carbon and temperature dynamics follow scientific inputs that combine various climatemodels (Joos et al. 2013). The static economic game is simple, focused on investment and consumption choices over time. There are no explicit prices. The use of emissions in production, which are costly from a climate-change perspective, largely determines the shadow price of consumption. The paper presented by Barnett et al. is a serious attempt at modeling uncertainty from a mathematical point of view. A comprehensive treatment of uncertainty surrounding climate change, such as the one proposed in this paper, seems warranted. I agree that there are significant uncertainties to be studied, particularly regarding the ability of humanity to adapt and mitigate the change (policy and economic uncertainty) as well as surrounding the possibility of major tipping points (Cai et al. 2015; Lemoine and Traeger 2016). Indeed, the authors find that uncertainty\",\"PeriodicalId\":51680,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Nber Macroeconomics Annual\",\"volume\":\"36 1\",\"pages\":\"321 - 328\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":7.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Nber Macroeconomics Annual\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1086/718669\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Nber Macroeconomics Annual","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1086/718669","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
Barnett、Brock和Hansen建立了一个理论和定量框架,将不确定性和模糊性厌恶概念纳入气候政策建模。他们的主要重点是建立一个易于处理的动态模型,其中包括碳动力学、温度动力学和损伤函数的不确定性。他们的模型采用了最先进的资产定价工具和连续模型,强调了不确定性的具体过程,如制度变化(跳跃过程)和错误指定的布朗增量。该模型扩展了作者之前的工作(Barnett, Brock, and Hansen 2020)。气候碳和温度动态遵循结合各种气候模型的科学输入(Joos et al. 2013)。静态经济博弈很简单,关注的是一段时间内的投资和消费选择。没有明确的价格。从气候变化的角度来看,在生产中使用排放物的成本很高,这在很大程度上决定了消费的影子价格。Barnett等人提出的论文是从数学角度对不确定性建模的认真尝试。对围绕气候变化的不确定性的综合处理,如本文中提出的,似乎是有必要的。我同意有很大的不确定性需要研究,特别是关于人类适应和减缓变化的能力(政策和经济的不确定性),以及围绕主要临界点的可能性(Cai et al. 2015;Lemoine and Traeger 2016)。事实上,作者发现了这种不确定性
Barnett, Brock, and Hansen build a theoretical and quantitative framework to incorporate concepts of uncertainty and ambiguity aversion to climate policy modeling. Their primary focus is on building a tractable dynamic model that includes uncertainty about carbon dynamics, temperature dynamics, and damage functions in a parsimonious way. Their model features state-of-the-art tools in asset pricing with a continuoustimemodel, emphasizing specific processes of uncertainty, such as regime changes (jump processes) and misspecified Brownian increments. This model extends the authors’ previous work (Barnett, Brock, and Hansen 2020). Climate carbon and temperature dynamics follow scientific inputs that combine various climatemodels (Joos et al. 2013). The static economic game is simple, focused on investment and consumption choices over time. There are no explicit prices. The use of emissions in production, which are costly from a climate-change perspective, largely determines the shadow price of consumption. The paper presented by Barnett et al. is a serious attempt at modeling uncertainty from a mathematical point of view. A comprehensive treatment of uncertainty surrounding climate change, such as the one proposed in this paper, seems warranted. I agree that there are significant uncertainties to be studied, particularly regarding the ability of humanity to adapt and mitigate the change (policy and economic uncertainty) as well as surrounding the possibility of major tipping points (Cai et al. 2015; Lemoine and Traeger 2016). Indeed, the authors find that uncertainty
期刊介绍:
The Nber Macroeconomics Annual provides a forum for important debates in contemporary macroeconomics and major developments in the theory of macroeconomic analysis and policy that include leading economists from a variety of fields.