金融一体化、能源消费与越南经济增长

IF 2 0 ECONOMICS Annals of Financial Economics Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI:10.1142/S2010495220500104
Nguyen Minh Ha, B. Ngoc, M. McAleer
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引用次数: 6

摘要

本文调查了1986年至2017年期间,金融一体化和能源消费对越南经济增长的影响。通过应用Pesaran等人提出的自回归分布式滞后ARDL方法。[Pesaran,MH,Y Shin和RJ-Smith(2001)。水平关系分析的边界检验方法。应用计量经济学杂志,16(3),289–326。]和边界协整检验,实证结果表明所有变量之间存在长期协整,从长远来看,金融一体化的加强会导致经济增长的增加。从短期和长期来看,能源消耗对经济增长都有积极影响。Toda和Yamamoto的因果关系检验[Toda,HY和T Yamamoto(1995)。可能集成过程的向量自回归中的统计推断。计量经济学杂志,66(1-2),225–250.]证实了金融集成和经济增长以及能源消耗和增长之间存在双向因果关系,这支持了反馈假说。然而,从能源消耗到金融一体化只有单向的因果关系。实证结果对公共政策决策者规划越南可持续发展目标具有重要的实证意义。
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FINANCIAL INTEGRATION, ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN VIETNAM
The paper investigates the impact of financial integration and energy consumption on economic growth in Vietnam during the period 1986–2017. By applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag ARDL) approach proposed by Pesaran et al. [Pesaran, MH, Y Shin and RJ Smith (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326.] and the bounds cointegration test, the empirical results show the existence of long-term cointegration among all the variables, and that an increase in financial integration leads to an increase in economic growth in the long run. There is a positive impact of energy consumption on growth in both the short run and long run. The causality test of Toda and Yamamoto [Toda, HY and T Yamamoto (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1–2), 225–250.] confirm that there is bi-directional causality between the pairs, financial integration and economic growth, and energy consumption and growth, which support the feedback hypothesis. However, there is only uni-directional causality from energy consumption to financial integration. The empirical results should be of major empirical importance for public policy decision-makers to plan sustainable development goals for Vietnam.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.60
自引率
55.00%
发文量
30
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