Did HOPE VI Move Communities to Opportunity? How Public Housing Redevelopment Affected Neighborhood Poverty, Racial Composition, and Resources 1990–2016

Abstract Public housing is a key federal investment, yet it has suffered severe underfunding and decay. HOPE VI sought to transform public housing by improving housing quality, deconcentrating poverty, and enhancing economic opportunities. Using rigorous quasi-experimental methods and an array of geocoded annual national administrative data from 1990 to 2016, we evaluated the effects of HOPE VI redevelopment on neighborhood composition and resources. After matching HOPE VI and control census tracts, we used a new flexible conditional difference-in-differences technique to estimate average treatment effects on the treated, accounting for varying treatment start dates and durations. Results show that HOPE VI redevelopment decreased tract poverty by 2.9 percentage points, an effect that remained relatively stable through 10 years postredevelopment, and increased median household incomes with no indication of rising affluence. These effects were most pronounced in high-poverty and predominantly Black tracts, and where public housing experienced more costly redevelopment or transitioned to mixed-income. HOPE VI redevelopments did not affect racial composition or the presence of institutional resources, social services, or commercial resources (e.g., grocery stores, restaurants). Results suggest partial success of HOPE VI. Additional policy levers are necessary to increase public housing residents’ access to neighborhood services that promote economic opportunities and well-being.