如何模拟蜜蜂种群动态:阶段结构和季节性

IF 0.4 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Mathematics in applied sciences and engineering Pub Date : 2020-03-22 DOI:10.5206/mase/10559
Jun Chen, K. Messan, Marisabel Rodriguez Messan, G. DeGrandi-Hoffman, Dingyong Bai, Yun Kang
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引用次数: 6

摘要

西方蜜蜂(Apis Mellifera)在我们的生态系统和经济中扮演着极其重要的角色,因为它们每年在全球范围内负责授粉价值2150亿美元。不幸的是,蜜蜂的数量和它们的栖息地急剧减少。本文的目的是探讨如何建立具有年龄结构的蜜蜂种群模型,并利用经验数据对模型进行验证,从而确定影响蜂群生存和健康的不同因素。我们的理论研究结合模拟和数据验证表明,在模型中纳入适当的年龄结构和季节性对蜜蜂种群建模很重要。具体来说,我们的工作表明,该模型假设:(1)成蜂是从卵群而不是幼虫群中存活下来的;并且(2)季节性在蜂王产卵率上,给予比其他蜜蜂模型更好的拟合性。最拟合模型的相关理论和数值分析表明:(a)蜂群的存活除了需要适当的初始条件外,还需要较大的蜂王产卵率和较小的其他生活史参数值;(b)产蛋率的增加和其他参数值的降低使成虫和幼蜂种群数量均呈增加趋势;(c)季节性可能促进/抑制蜂群的生存。
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How to model honeybee population dynamics: stage structure and seasonality
Western honeybees (Apis Mellifera) serve extremely important roles in our ecosystem and economics as  they are responsible for pollinating $ 215 billion dollars annually over the world.  Unfortunately,  honeybee population and their colonies have been declined dramatically. The purpose of this article is to explore how we should model honeybee population with age structure and validate the model using empirical data so that we can identify different factors that lead to the survival and healthy of the honeybee colony.  Our theoretical study combined with simulations and data validation suggests that the proper age structure incorporated in the model  and seasonality are important for modeling honeybee population.  Specifically, our work implies that the model assuming that (1) the adult bees are survived from the egg population rather than the brood population; and (2) seasonality in the queen egg laying rate, give the better fit than other honeybee models. The related theoretical and numerical analysis of the most fit model indicate that (a) the survival of honeybee colonies requires a large queen egg-laying rate and smaller values of the other life history parameter values in addition to proper initial condition; (b) both brood and adult bee populations are increasing with respect to the increase in the egg-laying rate and the decreasing in other parameter values; and (c) seasonality may promote/suppress the survival of the honeybee colony. 
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.40
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0.00%
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审稿时长
21 weeks
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