A methodology for projecting the return on investment of training technologies.

Each year significant tax dollars are spent on the development of new technologies to increase efficiency and/or reduce costs of military training. However, there are currently no validated methods or measures to quantify the return on investment for adopting these new technologies for military training. Estimating the return on investment (ROI) for training technology adoption involves 1) developing a methodology or framework, 2) validating measures and methods, and 3) assessing predictive validity. The current paper describes a projective methodology using the Kirkpatrick framework to compare projected tangible and intangible benefits against tangible and intangible costs to estimate future ROI. The use-case involved an advanced technology demonstration in which sixty aircrew participated in a series of live, virtual, and constructive (LVC) exercises over a five-week period. Participants evaluated the technology's potential costs and benefits according to the Kirkpatrick framework of training program evaluation, and analyses resulted in a nominal projection of $488 million dollars saved, significant enhancements in large-force proficiency, and 1.4 lives saved over ten years at an implementation rate of 0.5% of budgeted flight hours. A discussion of theoretical implications, data-based limitations, and recommendations for future research are provided.