疫情发生前后宏观经济变量对雅加达综合指数的影响

L. Amaliawiati, Utami E. M. Gusni, S. Komariah, D. M. Puspitasari
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摘要

本研究的目的是检验宏观经济变量对2019冠状病毒病之前和2019冠状病毒病期间印尼雅加达综合指数的短期和长期影响,并检验2019冠状病毒病和2019冠状病毒肺炎期间之前是否存在差异。宏观经济变量包括汇率(ER)、通货膨胀(INF)、利率(INT)和产出增长(IP)。本研究使用了2019.1年至2020.12年期间的时间序列数据,包括伪变量。第一阶段是用根测试单元测试数据的平稳性,结果是数据仅在第一和第二差中是平稳的。此外,变量和结果之间的协整测试显示了变量之间的协积关系,因此可以使用误差校正模型(ECM)对模型进行分析,以查看短期平衡。ECM模型分析的结果表明,在短期内,在2019冠状病毒病之前和2019冠状病毒病期间,影响印度尼西亚雅加达综合指数的唯一宏观经济变量只有汇率。从2019冠状病毒病之前的长期来看,影响雅加达综合指数的只有汇率,而2019冠状病毒病期间是汇率和通货膨胀率。其他结果表明,平均值存在差异。
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Effect of macroeconomic variables on Jakarta composite index before and the time of COVID19
The aim of this study is to examine the effect of macro-economic variables on the Jakarta composite index in Indonesia, both in the short and long term before Covid19 and the Covid19 period, as well as to examine whether there is a difference before Covid19 and the Covid19 period. Macroeconomic variables include exchange rate (ER), inflation (INF), interest rate (INT) and output growth (IP). This study uses data from the times series for the period 2019.1 to 2020.12 by including dummy variables. The first stage is to test the stationary of the data with the root test unit, and the result is that the data is only stationary in the first and second differences. In addition, the co-integration test between the variables and the results shows a co-integration relationship between the variables so that the model can be analyzed using the Error Correction Model (ECM) to see the short-term balance. The results of the ECM model analysis show that, in the short term, the only macroeconomic variables affecting the Jakarta composite index in Indonesia prior to Covid19 and the Covid19 period are only the exchange rate. In the long run before Covid19, the only ones affecting the Jakarta composite index were the exchange rate, while the eCovid19 period was the rate of exchange and inflation. Other results indicate that there is a difference in the average.
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