The Biden Nuclear Posture Review and Its Implications for US Asia-Pacific Allies

ABSTRACT US President Joe Biden is expected to issue a new Nuclear Posture Review report soon. It may include as a policy goal a reduction of the role of nuclear weapons in US military strategy. In that context, the issue of the modernization of the US nuclear deterrent will be addressed. Even if the land-based leg of the triad were somehow curtailed, the United States would be able to keep its allies reassured as long as its overall nuclear deterrence capability was perceived to be maintained. A reduction in the role of nuclear weapons in the overall US military doctrine should be welcomed. In that sense, adoption of a nuclear no-first-use or sole-purpose policy should also be welcomed even though some Japanese officials and experts may oppose it. Decreasing the role of nuclear weapons requires strengthening conventional deterrence unless the overall security situation is improved – a point that is not very well recognized in Japan. This shift will not be easy for Japan, where economic growth has been very low for decades and defense spending is virtually capped at around 1% of the gross national product. The US stance vis-à-vis the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons will draw attention in Japan, where there is considerable support for the treaty.