管理决策:不确定性的多准则评估

Serhii Bai, I. Fedulova, Yuliia Drozdova
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引用次数: 1

摘要

文章强调了不确定性和风险的主要特征,在做出管理决策时需要考虑这些特征,以确保企业所有流程的可控性。科学家们对风险和不确定性的高度关注,以及它们对管理决策的重要性,因此关于风险和不确定因素识别及其水平的争论仍然悬而未决。文章定义了不确定性的特征和类型,确定了管理决策过程中风险和不确定性之间的一些差异,构建了不确定性主要特征,并确定了不确定性水平和类型对管理决策的影响。我们对科学文献进行了实证分析,以确定“不确定性”概念的本质及其与“风险”概念的差异,对不确定性的主要特征和原因进行了结构遗传学分析,并对确定不确定性水平的模型进行了比较分析。我们确定了导致其存在的不确定性的主要特征,需要仔细考虑。本文提供了一种系统的方法来评估管理决策的总体不确定性水平和确保其成功的个别因素,这将使管理层能够专注于那些不确定性最高、可能对实现企业发展目标构成威胁的决策。我们提出了一种方法,根据该方法,可以确定管理决策的总体不确定性水平和管理决策成功的单独因素。提出了一种有系统地评估不确定性水平的方法,以确保管理决策的成功,这将使管理层能够专注于那些具有最高不确定性水平并可能对实现目标构成威胁的决策。
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MANAGEMENT DECISION-MAKING: MULTI-CRITERION ASSESSMENT OF UNCERTAINTY
The article highlights the main characteristics of uncertainty and risk, which need to be taken into account when making management decisions to ensure the controllability of all processes at the enterprise. The significant attention of scientists to risk and uncertainty, and their significance for management decision-making is very high, so the debate about risk and uncertainty identification and their levels still remains open. The article defines the character and types of uncertainty, identifies a number of differences between risk and uncertainty in the process of management decision-making, structures the main characteristics of uncertainty, and determines the impact of levels and types of uncertainty on management decision-making. We conducted an empirical analysis of scientific literature to determine the essence of the concept of "uncertainty" and its differences from the concept of "risk", a structural-genetic analysis of the main characteristics and causes of uncertainty, and a comparative analysis of models for determining levels of uncertainty. We identified the main characteristics of uncertainty which cause its existence and require careful consideration. The paper offers a methodical approach to assessing the level of uncertainty for managerial decision in general and for individual factors ensuring its success, which will allow management to focus on those decisions that have the highest level of uncertainty and may pose a threat to achieving the goals of enterprise development.We proposed an approach according to which the level of uncertainty can be determined both for a management decision in general and for separate factors of its success. A methodical approach to assessing the level of uncertainty is proposed to ensure the success of management decisions which will allow management to focus on those that have the highest level of uncertainty and may pose a threat to achieving goals.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
0.60
自引率
20.00%
发文量
268
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