Gang Affiliation and Prisoner Reentry: Discrete-Time Variation in Recidivism by Current, Former, and Non-Gang Status

Objectives: Reentry experiences for the 600,000 people released annually from federal and state prisons differ vastly. We contend that gangs, which rose to prominence alongside mass incarceration, are an overlooked source of variation in reentry experiences. Drawing on precepts from the street gang literature, we test whether patterns of recidivism differ by official and survey measures of current, former, and non-gang status. Methods: Data from a representative sample of 802 prisoners interviewed prior to their release in 2016 were linked to 36 months of post-release arrest, conviction, and imprisonment records. Survival curves and multivariable discrete-time survival analysis were used to test for differential patterns of recidivism. Results: The conditional risk of recidivism varied by gang status. Current gang members maintained the greatest risk for all recidivism types. While former gang members were more likely to get arrested than non-gang members, there were no differences in conviction and imprisonment. Official and survey gang measures mostly told the same story, although official measures appeared to be more reliable determinants of recidivism than survey measures. Conclusions: Distinguishing former from current and non-gang members is important for policy, practice, and research. These findings renew calls to understand and respond to social groups and networks like gangs for prisoner reentry.