Distributivni učinci ukidanja »socijalno motiviranih« sniženih stopa PDV-a radi povećanja izdašnosti i obuhvata ciljanih transfera: mikrosimulacijska analiza za Hrvatsku

Many countries, including Croatia, support households in need not only through social transfers, but also through ‘socially motivated’ reduced VAT rates for goods such as food. These measures are also useful to those who are richer, so the question arises whether it is more desirable to increase social benefits that target low-income housholds. This paper analyses distributive effects of a hypothetical reform of the Croatian system of taxation and transfers which includes: (a) abolition of socially motivated reduced VAT rates; (b) increase of generosity and the number of the users of guaranteed minimum benefit and the users of allowance for vulnerable energy buyers. The reform is designed to be virtually neutral fiscally in the sense that almost all additional VAT is spent on the increase of guaranteed minimum benefit and allowance for vulnerable energy buyers. Results of the analysis conducted by a detailed microsimulational model of taxation and transers that uses the data from EU-SILC and the Survey on household consumption show that the reform reduces poverty and inequality based on income after taxation and transfers, in spite of the increase of the regressivity of VAT and the decrease of the progressivity of the guaranted minimum benefit and allowance for vulnerable energy buyers. Key words: VAT, social benefits, microsimulations, inequalities, poverty, reform