Drivers and prospects of over-urbanization of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

ABSTRACT Over-urbanization appears to be one of the distinctive traits of cities of developing countries because population growth surpasses economic development. This study is among the first research in Africa to examine the major drivers and prospects of over-urbanization. We determined the city's Land Support Capacity (LSC), social accommodation capacity, and crowdness using Yeats and Multiple Regression Models. The theoretical frameworks that guide this study are modernization and dependency theories. Findings showed that Addis Ababa is over-urbanized due to population growth, internal migration, weak economic structure, and policy failure. With an LSC of 0.017, the city is overcrowded, i.e. the population outnumbers the LSC. The regression model showed that household size and income had a significant relationship with crowdness. Effective urban development policies are necessary to balance population growth and economic development. This might be accomplished by curbing Addis Ababa's primacy rate and directing governmental investment toward secondary towns and rural areas.