Compositional safe approximation of response time probability density function of complex workflows

We evaluate a stochastic upper bound on the response time Probability Density Function (PDF) of complex workflows through an efficient and accurate compositional approach. Workflows consist of activities having generally distributed stochastic durations with bounded supports, composed through sequence, choice/merge, and balanced/unbalanced split/join operators, possibly breaking the structure of well-formed nesting. Workflows are specified using a formalism defined in terms of Stochastic Time Petri Nets (STPNs), that permits decomposition into a hierarchy of subworkflows with positively correlated response times, guaranteeing that a stochastically larger end-to-end response time PDF is obtained when intermediate results are approximated by stochastically larger PDFs and when dependencies are simplified by replicating activities appearing in multiple subworkflows. In particular, an accurate stochastically larger PDF is obtained by combining shifted truncated Exponential terms with positive or negative rates. Experiments are performed on sets of manually and randomly generated models with increasing complexity, illustrating under which conditions different decomposition heuristics work well in terms of accuracy and complexity, and showing that the proposed approach outperforms simulation having the same execution time.