政治联系和银行融资多样性是否会增加不良贷款:来自贝叶斯方法的新证据

IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Montenegrin Journal of Economics Pub Date : 2022-09-15 DOI:10.14254/1800-5845/2022.18-4.8
Khoa Dang Duong
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引用次数: 6

摘要

本研究旨在填补政治关系和银行融资多样性对越南商业银行风险承担行为影响评估的空白。本文采用贝叶斯方法克服了小样本问题,减少了估计结果的偏差。本文构建了一个包含越南38家商业银行2003 - 2020年的数据样本。我们的研究结果表明了越南银行业的几个发现。首先,我们的研究结果表明,有政治关系的银行的不良贷款率比没有政治关系的银行高0.4%。其次,我们发现越南商业银行的资金多样性与不良贷款之间存在正相关关系。有趣的是,我们的研究结果表明,商业银行,特别是有政治关系的银行,在最近两次越南共产党全国代表大会之前的一年里,不良贷款分别减少了0.2%和0.4%。这可能是因为,在越南共产党全国代表大会召开之前,银行经理们通过减少不良贷款来确保自己的职位和政治晋升。最后,我们的研究认为,在新冠疫情期间,商业银行的不良贷款水平较低,因为政府对当地经济提供了刺激支持。我们的研究对新兴市场的银行经理和当局具有重大意义。©2022,转型研究经济实验室。版权所有。
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Do Political Connections and Bank Funding Diversity Increase Non-Performing Loans: New Evidence from the Bayesian Approach
Our study aims to fill the gap in estimating the impacts of political connections and bank funding diversity on the risk-taking behaviors of Vietnamese commercial banks. By employing the Bayesian methodology, our paper can overcome the small sample issues to reduce the bias in estimation results. We construct a data sample that includes 38 commercial banks in Vietnam from 2003 to 2020. Our results suggest several findings in the Vietnamese banking sector. Firstly, our findings suggest that politically connected banks have 0.4% non-performing loans higher than unconnected peers. Secondly, we find a positive relationship between funding diversity and non-performing loans of commercial banks in Vietnam. Interestingly, our findings report that the commercial banks, especially the politically connected banks, reduced non-performing loans by 0.2% and 0.4% for a year before the recent two National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam, respectively. It could be due to the notion that the bank managers secure their job and political promotions by reducing non-performing loans before the National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam. Finally, our study argues that the commercial bank had a lower level of non-performing loans during the Covid19 pandemic because the government offered stimulus supports to the local economy. Our study has substantial implications for bank managers and authorities in emerging markets. © 2022, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research. All rights reserved.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.90
自引率
0.00%
发文量
69
审稿时长
17 weeks
期刊介绍: “Montenegrin Journal of Economics” is an international scientific periodical, issued by NGO “Economic Laboratory for Transition Research” (ELIT) Podgorica, Montenegro. It publishes theoretical, empirical and applicative articles from all the areas of Economics. The journal is issued four times a year. Montenegrin Journal of Economics aspires to educate the widest public on contemporary research and achievements in various areas of economics and to expend the boundaries of economic knowledge. Montenegrin Journal of Economics aims to publish innovative, straightforward, challenging, analytical and review articles on economic phenomena, events and changes . The journal''s content aspires to be actual, relevant and interesting to a wide readership of economic specialties,. This includes publishing the articles of authors from various universities and schools of economics worldwide and their mutual cooperation. Areas of research include, but are not limited to, the following: Economic Theory, International Economics, and Transition Issues.
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