理解运费预测准确性的影响因素——文献的元回归分析

IF 1 Q3 ENGINEERING, MARINE Journal of Eta Maritime Science Pub Date : 2022-03-30 DOI:10.4274/jems.2022.87894
Cemile Solak Fışkın, E. F. Akgül
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究试图探索这些关于运价预测的线性目标,本研究遵循元回归方法对以往的运价预测研究进行全面、系统的回顾。以往的文献综述大多基于定性分析,缺乏定量分析。我们将本文组织如下:第2节包含基于运费预测模型文献的假设。第3节介绍了材料和摘要运费预测几十年来一直是一个讨论的话题。尽管运费预测被视为航运领域的一个关键研究课题,但文献中缺乏关于如何获得更可靠、更准确的运费预测的系统实证说明。本研究使用元回归来综合运费预测的文献,并测试各种准确性影响因素。研究证实,运费预测的准确性在很大程度上取决于数据频率、预测范围和方法、市场类型、样本量以及解释变量的包含情况。
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Understanding the Influencers of Freight Rate Forecasting Accuracy: A Meta-Regression Analysis of the Literature
study attempts exploring these on freight rate forecasting line aim, this study follows a Meta-Regression methodology provide a comprehensive and systematic review of prior freight rate forecasting studies. Most of the previous literature reviews were based on qualitative analysis and lacked quantitative We organized this paper as follows: Section 2 contains the proposed hypotheses based on the literature on freight rate forecasting models. Section 3 describes the materials and Abstract Forecasting freight rates has been a topic of discussion for decades. Even though freight rate forecasting is regarded as a critical research topic in shipping, the literature lacks a systematic empirical account of how to obtain more reliable and accurate freight rate forecasts. This study uses meta-regression to synthesize the literature on freight rate forecasting and to test various accuracy influencers. The study confirms that the accuracy of the freight rate forecasts depends significantly on data frequency, forecasting horizon and method, market type, sample size, and the inclusion of explanatory variables.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.30
自引率
11.10%
发文量
24
审稿时长
10 weeks
期刊最新文献
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