杰伊汉河流域的水文气候趋势和干旱风险评估:SPI和STI指数的启示

IF 3.1 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Hydrology Pub Date : 2023-07-26 DOI:10.3390/hydrology10080157
H. Darabi, A. Danandeh Mehr, Gülşen Kum, M. Sönmez, C. Dumitrache, Khadija Diani, A. Çelebi, Ali Torabi Haghighi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

这项研究利用15个气象站记录的历史降雨量和温度观测,研究了土耳其安纳托利亚南部杰伊汉河流域的时空气候变化。采用各种统计和地质统计学技术来确定整个盆地及其三个子区域(北部、中部和南部区域)中每个气候变量的趋势显著性。结果显示,与往年相比,该盆地近年来总体较暖,气温上升约4°C。标准化温度指数分析表明,2005年后气温向高温期转变,而最冷时期出现在20世纪90年代初。整个盆地的温度空间分布呈现出不均匀的模式。研究期间的第一个十年(1975年至1984年)以相对寒冷的温度为特征,随后是1985年至2004年从寒冷到炎热的过渡期,最后十年(2005年至2014年)是更热的时期。降雨量分析表明,年降雨量呈下降趋势,特别是在盆地的北部和中部地区。然而,在研究期间,南部地区的年降雨量呈增加趋势。降雨的空间分布在整个流域表现出相当大的可变性,不同地区经历了不同的模式。标准化降水指数分析显示,在整个研究期间发生了多起干旱事件。最严重和持续时间最长的干旱发生在1992-1996年和2007-2010年。这些干旱事件对该流域的水资源供应和农业生产力产生了重大影响。
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Hydroclimatic Trends and Drought Risk Assessment in the Ceyhan River Basin: Insights from SPI and STI Indices
This study examined the spatiotemporal climate variability over the Ceyhan River basin in Southern Anatolia, Türkiye using historical rainfall and temperature observations recorded at 15 meteorology stations. Various statistical and geostatistical techniques were employed to determine the significance of trends for each climatic variable in the whole basin and its three sub-regions (northern, central, and southern regions). The results revealed that the recent years in the basin were generally warmer compared with previous years, with a temperature increase of approximately 4 °C. The standardized temperature index analysis indicated a shift towards hotter periods after 2005, while the coldest periods were observed in the early 1990s. The spatial distribution of temperature showed non-uniform patterns throughout the basin. The first decade of the study period (1975–1984) was characterized by relatively cold temperatures, followed by a transition period from cold to hot between 1985 and 2004, and a hotter period in the last decade (2005–2014). The rainfall analysis indicated a decreasing trend in annual rainfall, particularly in the northern and central regions of the basin. However, the southern region showed an increasing trend in annual rainfall during the study period. The spatial distribution of rainfall exhibited considerable variability across the basin, with different regions experiencing distinct patterns. The standardized precipitation index analysis revealed the occurrence of multiple drought events throughout the study period. The most severe and prolonged droughts were observed in the years 1992–1996 and 2007–2010. These drought events had significant impacts on water availability and agricultural productivity in the basin.
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来源期刊
Hydrology
Hydrology Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth-Surface Processes
CiteScore
4.90
自引率
21.90%
发文量
192
审稿时长
6 weeks
期刊介绍: Journal of Hydrology publishes original research papers and comprehensive reviews in all the subfields of the hydrological sciences, including water based management and policy issues that impact on economics and society. These comprise, but are not limited to the physical, chemical, biogeochemical, stochastic and systems aspects of surface and groundwater hydrology, hydrometeorology, hydrogeology and hydrogeophysics. Relevant topics incorporating the insights and methodologies of disciplines such as climatology, water resource systems, ecohydrology, geomorphology, soil science, instrumentation and remote sensing, data and information sciences, civil and environmental engineering are within scope. Social science perspectives on hydrological problems such as resource and ecological economics, sociology, psychology and behavioural science, management and policy analysis are also invited. Multi-and interdisciplinary analyses of hydrological problems are within scope. The science published in the Journal of Hydrology is relevant to catchment scales rather than exclusively to a local scale or site. Studies focused on urban hydrological issues are included.
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