气候变化下物种分布预测中的扩散和种内变化

IF 3.2 2区 农林科学 Q1 ENTOMOLOGY Insect Conservation and Diversity Pub Date : 2023-08-19 DOI:10.1111/icad.12681
Sheng-Nan Zhang, Kôhei Kubota
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在气候变化条件下,物种的扩散和局部适应在物种分布中起着重要的驱动作用。许多研究旨在估计物种发生与环境变量之间的关系,以预测范围转移和生物多样性丧失,而忽略了分散和种内变异,导致复杂的时空动态。我们利用两种具有不同亚种分布的低扩散、冷适应的Platycerus物种(鞘翅目:Lucanidae)作为焦点物种,利用物种分布模型(SDMs)对气候变化下物种分布的分布和种内变化进行了预测。结果表明,当考虑sdm的扩散约束时,亚种水平模型的表现明显优于种水平模型。无论是否考虑到扩散或种内变异,预计未来白尾Platycerus albisomni的预测物种范围都将缩小。考虑SDMs中的扩散约束,气候变化对高川Platycerus takakuwai的潜在分布面积在亚种水平上呈增加趋势,但在种水平上呈减少趋势。这些不同的结果表明,亚种水平的sdm可以检测到在物种水平模型中可能被忽视的气候变化影响。因此,考虑种内变异和扩散限制的模型可能为气候变化的影响提供更现实的视角。由于为了保护目的需要精确地绘制潜在栖息地,人口统计学研究应明确地包括扩散,并探索扩散的种内变化如何以及何时影响当地种群动态。这种方法可以帮助评估物种栖息地的变化,从而制定合适的保护策略。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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Accounting for dispersal and intraspecific variation in forecasts of species distribution under climate change

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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.70
自引率
8.60%
发文量
58
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: To publish papers of the highest scientific quality within the general area of insect (and other arthropods) conservation and diversity covering topics ranging from ecological theory to practical management. Papers are invited on the following topics: Conservation genetics; Extinction debt; Long-term conservation planning and implementation; Global implications of local or national conservation actions; Management responses of species and communities; Captive breeding programs; Comparisons of restored and natural habitats; Biogeography; Global biodiversity; Metapopulation dynamics; Climate change: impacts on distributions and range; Invasive species: impacts and control; Effects of pollution; Genetic threats to diversity by introgression; Effects of fragmentation on diversity and distribution; Impact of agricultural and forestry practices on biodiversity; Enhancing urban environments for diversity and protection; Biodiversity action plans: can we scale up from insects?; Effectiveness and choice of indicator species; Soil biodiversity and interactions with above-ground biodiversity; Ecological interactions at local levels; Ecological and evolutionary factors influencing diversity and local, regional and global scales; Sustainable livelihoods and training on the ground; Integrating science and policy.
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