农民对中美贸易战的反应:观念与行为

Minghao Li, Xi He, Wendong Zhang, Shuyang Qu, Lulu Rodriguez, James M. Gbeda
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摘要

通过分析2019年中西部农民调查,我们研究了政治倾向如何影响农民对美中贸易战的看法和反应。结果表明,频繁使用保守(自由)媒体与农民因中美贸易战而遭受的预期收入损失减少2.3%(增加2.4%)有关,而认为市场促进计划支付有帮助的可能性增加14.3%。不同媒体来源的观众对中国报复性关税的水平和出口到中国的大豆份额等事实存在分歧。然而,我们发现媒体曝光与农民减轻价格下跌风险的经济决策之间几乎没有关联。当重大经济利益受到威胁时,党派偏见会出现在有关经济事实和看法的陈述中,但不会出现在经济决策中。这一差异表明,报复性关税对农民的经济行为影响不大,但可能会影响农民的政治行为。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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Farmers' reactions to the US–China trade war: Perceptions versus behaviors

This study examines how the political alignments of Midwestern farmers, proxied by their consumption of partisan media, affect their perceptions of and responses to the US–China trade war. Our results indicate that farmers who consume conservative media perceive a lower income loss resulting from the trade war and view the Market Facilitation Program (MFP) as more helpful. Conversely, farmers who consume liberal media have the opposite perception biases. We found no evidence of any association between partisan media consumption and planting and risk management decisions. Overall, partisan bias exists despite financial interest at stake but does not affect behaviors.

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