Disruptive trends in long-range precision strike, ISR, and defensive systems

ABSTRACT Novel long-range missiles, sensor technologies, and directed-energy weapons are rapidly disrupting the balance between offense and defense in modern warfare. It will probably become significantly more difficult to hide aircraft, ships, and vehicles on the battlefield as sensors improve and the cost premium for effective stealth increases. Hypersonic missiles threaten to make it more difficult to defend key assets using traditional means. However, sensor advances will aid both sides, and, if directed-energy weapons can be effectively developed and deployed, the trend could shift the other way, toward effective point defenses limited only by power and cooling. With multiple, potentially contradictory trends, the outcome for strategic stability remains extremely difficult to discern.