Predator-permanence hypothesis in time: Community dynamics in a seasonally flooded wetland

The predator-permanence hypothesis predicts that as hydroperiod increases in lentic ecosystems, biotic interactions—mainly predation—replace physical factors like drying as the main determinant of community structure and population dynamics. We propose that the same transition occurs over time in seasonally flooded ecosystems that are connected to permanent water bodies. To test for evidence of successional changes that are similar to spatial changes in the relative importance of drying and predation, we used a 12-y time series of snail density, predator density, and water depth at 4 sites arranged along a nutrient gradient in a subtropical, seasonally flooded wetland, the Florida Everglades, USA. The rate of change in snail population size was negatively correlated with their density at all 4 sites, suggesting that density-dependent factors such as resource limitation regulate snail dynamics. The strength of the relationship varied among sites such that when water depth changes were less important, snail population size was more important in predicting changes in snail population size. At the site that consistently had the greatest snail density, crayfish density negatively affected the rate of snail population change, suggesting that crayfish predation may limit snail population growth in areas with more or higher-quality resources that support larger snail populations. Tethering studies were also conducted, which revealed higher snail mortality in the wet season, primarily because crushing predators (e.g., molluscivorous fishes) were more common at that time and added to the chronic mortality by entry-based predators (e.g., crayfish, which access snails through their aperture). In summary, 3 of the sites resembled temporary or permanent fishless ponds where snail populations were primarily structured by abiotic factors, intraspecific competition, and invertebrate predators (e.g., crayfish) during the wet season, whereas 1 site showed evidence that snail populations were also influenced by molluscivorous fish. This temporal change in importance of water permanence factors to fish that affected population dynamics supports the spatial pattern proposed by the predator-permanence hypothesis.