{"title":"新冠肺炎在监狱和社区之间的比较","authors":"K. B. Bucklen, Michael LaForest","doi":"10.1080/23774657.2022.2110174","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Policy-makers need the best available evidence to inform policy decisions during public health emergencies. We illustrate this in the context of temporary prisoner release decisions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We leverage parolee COVID-19 mortality rates in PA to show that prior estimates of the expected COVID-19 mortality rate for prisoners if released into the community, calculated from community rates, underestimate expected deaths by a factor of over 2.5. These results suggest a substantially smaller return to public health from temporary prisoner release programs than previously estimated and that, in some settings, such programs can increase COVID-19 risk. They also highlight the importance of selecting an appropriate comparison group when estimating counterfactuals to inform public policy.","PeriodicalId":91861,"journal":{"name":"Corrections : policy, practice and research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2022-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Comparing COVID-19 between Prisons and the Community\",\"authors\":\"K. B. Bucklen, Michael LaForest\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/23774657.2022.2110174\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"ABSTRACT Policy-makers need the best available evidence to inform policy decisions during public health emergencies. We illustrate this in the context of temporary prisoner release decisions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We leverage parolee COVID-19 mortality rates in PA to show that prior estimates of the expected COVID-19 mortality rate for prisoners if released into the community, calculated from community rates, underestimate expected deaths by a factor of over 2.5. These results suggest a substantially smaller return to public health from temporary prisoner release programs than previously estimated and that, in some settings, such programs can increase COVID-19 risk. They also highlight the importance of selecting an appropriate comparison group when estimating counterfactuals to inform public policy.\",\"PeriodicalId\":91861,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Corrections : policy, practice and research\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-08-09\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Corrections : policy, practice and research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1080/23774657.2022.2110174\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Corrections : policy, practice and research","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/23774657.2022.2110174","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Comparing COVID-19 between Prisons and the Community
ABSTRACT Policy-makers need the best available evidence to inform policy decisions during public health emergencies. We illustrate this in the context of temporary prisoner release decisions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We leverage parolee COVID-19 mortality rates in PA to show that prior estimates of the expected COVID-19 mortality rate for prisoners if released into the community, calculated from community rates, underestimate expected deaths by a factor of over 2.5. These results suggest a substantially smaller return to public health from temporary prisoner release programs than previously estimated and that, in some settings, such programs can increase COVID-19 risk. They also highlight the importance of selecting an appropriate comparison group when estimating counterfactuals to inform public policy.