加密货币生存分析

IF 0.4 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Journal of Alternative Investments Pub Date : 2019-11-13 DOI:10.3905/jai.2019.1.084
J. Lánský
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引用次数: 7

摘要

加密货币是最伟大的技术创新之一。加密货币是分散的支付系统,其所有权以加密方式证明。支付单位所有权的概览存储在一个名为区块链的数据结构中。在数千种加密货币中,最著名的是比特币、以太坊、瑞波币、莱特币、EOS、卡尔达诺、NEO、达世币和门罗币。在过去,新的加密货币通常是通过修改另一种加密货币的参数和启动新的区块链来创建的。如今,新的加密货币通常是作为另一种现有加密货币的应用程序创建的。这种加密货币被称为代币。创建一种新的加密货币很容易,但其价值取决于用户为其单位付费的意愿。如果一种加密货币失去了用户,它就会变得一文不值。在本文中,我们分析了2500多种加密货币,这些加密货币现在或以前在加密货币交易所交易。我们已经探讨了加密货币无法生存并将从交易所退市的可能性。对于不同类别的加密货币,根据其之前在交易所的交易时间,我们确定了1至5年内退市的条件概率。我们发现新的加密货币是最危险的。随着加密货币年龄的增加,其退市的可能性降低。•加密货币构成了一个不断扩大的潜在参与和投资领域。自2009年第一种加密货币(比特币)诞生以来,已有超过2500种加密货币在交易所上市。•考虑至少等一年再购买新的加密货币。超过70%的加密货币是在第一年被摘牌的。•考虑等待五年再购买新的加密货币。已经交易了五年的加密货币在一年内有9%的机会被摘牌。
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Cryptocurrency Survival Analysis
Cryptocurrencies are one of the greatest technological innovations. Cryptocurrencies are decentralized payment systems in which ownership is demonstrated cryptographically. An overview of ownership of payment units is stored in a data structure called blockchain. Of the thousands of cryptocurrencies, the best known are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, EOS, Cardano, NEO, Dash, and Monero. In the past, new cryptocurrencies were most often created by modifying the parameters of another cryptocurrency and by launching a new blockchain. Nowadays, new cryptocurrencies are most commonly created as applications on another existing cryptocurrency. Such cryptocurrencies are called tokens. Creating a new cryptocurrency is easy, but its value depends on users’ willingness to pay for its units. If a cryptocurrency loses its users, it becomes worthless. In this article, we analyze over 2,500 cryptocurrencies that are or were previously traded on cryptocurrency exchanges. We have explored the probability that a cryptocurrency will not survive and will be delisted from exchanges. For the different categories of cryptocurrencies according to their previous trading time on exchanges, we have determined the conditional probability of delisting within 1 to 5 years. We found out that the new cryptocurrencies are the riskiest. With the increasing age of the cryptocurrency, the probability of its delisting decreases. TOPIC: Currency Key Findings • Cryptocurrencies constitute an expanding area for potential participation and investment. Since the first cryptocurrency was created in 2009 (Bitcoin) more than 2,500 cryptocurrencies have been listed on exchanges. • Consider waiting at least a year before buying a new cryptocurrency. More than 70% of cryptocurrencies that become delisted do so in the first year. • Consider waiting five years before buying a new cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrencies that have been trading for five years have a 9% chance of being delisted within one year..
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.50
自引率
14.30%
发文量
40
期刊介绍: The Journal of Alternative Investments (JAI) provides you with cutting-edge research and expert analysis on managing investments in hedge funds, private equity, distressed debt, commodities and futures, energy, funds of funds, and other nontraditional assets. JAI is the official publication of the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst Association (CAIA®). JAI provides you with challenging ideas and practical tools to: •Profit from the growth of hedge funds and alternatives •Determine the optimal mix of traditional and alternative investments •Measure and track portfolio performance •Manage your alternative investment portfolio with proven risk management practices
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