The fragility of general deterrence: The United States and China in maritime East Asia

Abstract The last decade has witnessed the gradual erosion of the maritime status quo in East Asia, as the United States proved unable to curb Chinese challenges in the East and South China seas. This article argues that this phenomenon is linked to the erosion of US general deterrence posture in the region. It examines the three main factors that have contributed to this erosion: an enduring imbalance of interests between Beijing and Washington, a rapidly evolving local balance of power, and the employment by China of strategies that have allowed it to efficiently circumvent US weak red lines.