Analysis of Factors that Determine Inclusion of LULUCF into Realisation of EU Climate Policy Objectives 2021–2030 in the Non-ETS Sectors

Abstract Starting in 2021, Poland's emission reduction target for 2030, in the sectors not covered by the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is −7% compared to the emissions level in the non-ETS sectors in 2005. This is a big change in comparison with the target for the period of 2013–2020, which assumed potential emissions increase relative to the same baseline and was +14% by 2020. In order to cope with the need to make a much greater reduction effort, Poland will likely need to use flexibility mechanisms to support achieving the more ambitious target. One the possible mechanism is the use of removals to cover likely excesses of annual non-ETS emissions through an additional individual limit on the number of removals generated in the land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector. However, this possibility is conditional on a range of factors associated with emission inventory and reporting, legal regulations and accounting procedures. The present study addresses these factors in detail and highlights the linkages between them. It provides a comprehensive cross-cutting analysis of the issue and gives an insight into the scattered legal regulations in relation to the discussed subject. In conceivably straightforward ways, there are described the specific concepts and processes depicting the inclusion of removals in accounting to meet the reduction target in the non-ETS. The article points out the potential opportunities for Poland to comply with the obligations imposed by EU regulations.