收敛到收敛

IF 7.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Nber Macroeconomics Annual Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI:10.1086/718672
M. Kremer, Jack Willis, Yang You
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引用次数: 8

摘要

20世纪90年代的经验测试发现,几乎没有证据表明,自20世纪60年代以来,贫穷国家赶上了富裕国家的无条件趋同和长期分化。这一程式化的事实刺激了增长理论的几项发展,包括AK模型、贫困陷阱模型和以稳定收入决定因素为条件的趋同概念。我们使用随后的25年作为样本外测试,重新审视了这些发现,并记录了自1990年以来无条件趋同和自2000年以来趋同的趋势,这是由更快的追赶增长和更慢的前沿增长驱动的。在同一时期,许多与增长相关的因素——人力资本、政策、制度和文化——也大幅趋同,并朝着与更高收入相关的方向发展。这些变化是否相关?使用省略的变量偏差公式,我们将无条件收敛和条件收敛之间的差距分解为两个横截面斜率的乘积。首先,相关收入斜率,自1990年以来基本保持稳定。其次,控制收入的增长相关斜率(增长回归系数)在索洛模型的基本面(投资率、人口增长和人力资本)中保持稳定,但在其他相关方面基本持平,导致无条件收敛向条件收敛。
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Converging to Convergence
Empirical tests in the 1990s found little evidence of poor countries catching up with rich unconditional convergence - since the 1960s, and divergence over longer periods. This stylized fact spurred several developments in growth theory, including AK models, poverty trap models, and the concept of convergence conditional on determinants of steady-state income. We revisit these findings, using the subsequent 25 years as an out-of-sample test, and document a trend towards unconditional convergence since 1990 and convergence since 2000, driven by both faster catch-up growth and slower growth of the frontier. During the same period, many of the correlates of growth - human capital, policies, institutions, and culture - also converged substantially and moved in the direction associated with higher income. Were these changes related? Using the omitted variable bias formula, we decompose the gap between unconditional and conditional convergence as the product of two cross-sectional slopes. First, correlate-income slopes, which remained largely stable since 1990. Second, growth-correlate slopes controlling for income - the coefficients of growth regressions - which remained stable for fundamentals of the Solow model (investment rate, population growth, and human capital) but which flattened substantially for other correlates, leading unconditional convergence to converge towards conditional convergence.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
0.00%
发文量
23
期刊介绍: The Nber Macroeconomics Annual provides a forum for important debates in contemporary macroeconomics and major developments in the theory of macroeconomic analysis and policy that include leading economists from a variety of fields.
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