More long-term care for better healthcare and vice versa: investigating the mortality effects of interactions between these public sectors

Public healthcare (HC) and long-term care (LTC) sectors coexist in several OECD countries. Economic interactions between these two sectors have been found to occur even in the absence of formal integrated care arrangements. We investigate whether and how interactions between the HC and LTC sectors impact mortality. We analyse data on English local authorities in 2014–15 and employ a sequence of cross-sectional econometric specifications based on instrumental variables to identify the effect that LTC expenditure has on mortality through its interactions with HC services, and vice versa. Our findings suggest that any effect of LTC expenditure on mortality is likely to run through the HC sector by allowing the latter to reallocate resources from less to more effective services. A 10 per cent increase in LTC expenditure per user can indirectly save, on average, about three lives per million individuals. In addition, on top of the known HC direct mortality effects, we find that investing an extra £42 million in the HC sector – equivalent to a 10 per cent increase in HC expenditure per capita for the average local authority – can decrease the use of LTC services, producing around £7.8 million of savings. These can generate mortality effects if invested in services having an impact on mortality.