Who will pay for workplace reforms in U.S. meat-processing plants? Simulation results from the USAGE model*

It is possible that COVID will trigger permanent changes in work practices that increase costs in U.S. meat-processing plants. These changes will be beneficial for the safety and economic welfare of meat-processing workers. However, they will have economic costs. In assessing reform options, policymakers seek guidance from analyses based on models embracing micro detail and an economy-wide perspective. In this paper, we use USAGE-Food, a highly disaggregated computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the United States, to work out how additional processing costs would be distributed between consumers of meat products and farmers. We also calculate industry and macroeconomic effects. Despite modelling farmers as owning fixed factors, principally their own labour, we find that the farmer share in extra processing costs is likely to be quite moderate. Throughout the paper, we support simulation results with back-of-the-envelope calculations, diagrams and sensitivity analyses. These devices identify the mechanisms in the model and key data points that are responsible for the main results. In this way, we avoid the black-box criticism that is sometimes levelled at CGE modelling.