{"title":"五十年后的赎罪日情报失败:我们能从中吸取什么教训?","authors":"Itai Shapira","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2235795","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Extensive research has been published about the failure of Israeli intelligence in the Yom Kippur War in 1973, mainly in the context of flawed analysis and strategic surprise. Fifty years after the war, the current article uses an intelligence studies lens to describe major lessons which can be learned from this failure of early warning. Such lessons include the required focus of strategic intelligence on identifying change rather than continuity, the need for explicit analytical methodology beyond inductive reasoning, the importance of integrating assessment of adversary intentions and capabilities, the risk of over-reliance on raw information, and the need for a culture encouraging contrarian thinking.","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2023-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The Yom Kippur intelligence failure after fifty years: what lessons can be learned?\",\"authors\":\"Itai Shapira\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/02684527.2023.2235795\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"ABSTRACT Extensive research has been published about the failure of Israeli intelligence in the Yom Kippur War in 1973, mainly in the context of flawed analysis and strategic surprise. Fifty years after the war, the current article uses an intelligence studies lens to describe major lessons which can be learned from this failure of early warning. Such lessons include the required focus of strategic intelligence on identifying change rather than continuity, the need for explicit analytical methodology beyond inductive reasoning, the importance of integrating assessment of adversary intentions and capabilities, the risk of over-reliance on raw information, and the need for a culture encouraging contrarian thinking.\",\"PeriodicalId\":47048,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Intelligence and National Security\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-08-07\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Intelligence and National Security\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"90\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2235795\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"社会学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"HISTORY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Intelligence and National Security","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2235795","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"HISTORY","Score":null,"Total":0}
The Yom Kippur intelligence failure after fifty years: what lessons can be learned?
ABSTRACT Extensive research has been published about the failure of Israeli intelligence in the Yom Kippur War in 1973, mainly in the context of flawed analysis and strategic surprise. Fifty years after the war, the current article uses an intelligence studies lens to describe major lessons which can be learned from this failure of early warning. Such lessons include the required focus of strategic intelligence on identifying change rather than continuity, the need for explicit analytical methodology beyond inductive reasoning, the importance of integrating assessment of adversary intentions and capabilities, the risk of over-reliance on raw information, and the need for a culture encouraging contrarian thinking.
期刊介绍：
Intelligence has never played a more prominent role in international politics than it does now in the early years of the twenty-first century. National intelligence services are larger than ever, and they are more transparent in their activities in the policy making of democratic nations. Intelligence and National Security is widely regarded as the world''s leading scholarly journal focused on the role of intelligence and secretive agencies in international relations. It examines this aspect of national security from a variety of perspectives and academic disciplines, with insightful articles research and written by leading experts based around the globe. Among the topics covered in the journal are: • the historical development of intelligence agencies • representations of intelligence in popular culture • public understandings and expectations related to intelligence • intelligence and ethics • intelligence collection and analysis • covert action and counterintelligence • privacy and intelligence accountability • the outsourcing of intelligence operations • the role of politics in intelligence activities • international intelligence cooperation and burden-sharing • the relationships among intelligence agencies, military organizations, and civilian policy departments. Authors for Intelligence and National Security come from a range of disciplines, including international affairs, history, sociology, political science, law, anthropology, philosophy, medicine, statistics, psychology, bio-sciences, and mathematics. These perspectives are regularly augmented by research submitted from current and former intelligence practitioners in several different nations. Each issue features a rich menu of articles about the uses (and occasional misuses) of intelligence, supplemented from time to time with special forums on current intelligence issues and interviews with leading intelligence officials.
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