用score copula模型模拟波动性相关性

IF 0.7 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics Pub Date : 2022-10-07 DOI:10.1515/snde-2022-0006
Willy Alanya-Beltran
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要研究了金融波动序列间高持续性依赖的得分驱动模型。我用两个组件对这种持久性依赖进行建模,一个用于长期记忆,另一个用于短期过程。组件的添加为建模高持久性提供了一个简洁的解决方案,并且还允许为瞬态冲击提供一个短期组件。我将这个模型应用于美洲的新兴市场股票。这些估计对于大流行的到来是可靠的。此外,数据重采样和边际替代方案提供了类似的参数估计。所提出的双分量模型改进了样本内诊断,并产生了更准确的样本外预测。
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Modelling volatility dependence with score copula models
Abstract I study score-driven models for modelling high persistence dependence between financial volatility series. I model this persistence dependence with two components, one for the long memory and the other for the short-term process. The addition of components offers a parsimonious solution for modelling high persistence and also allows for a short-term component for the transient shocks. I apply the model to emerging equities in the Americas. The estimates are robust to the advent of the pandemic. In addition, data resampling and marginal alternatives deliver similar parameter estimates. The proposed two-component model improves the in-sample diagnostics and generates more accurate out-of-sample forecasts.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.40
自引率
12.50%
发文量
34
期刊介绍: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics (SNDE) recognizes that advances in statistics and dynamical systems theory may increase our understanding of economic and financial markets. The journal seeks both theoretical and applied papers that characterize and motivate nonlinear phenomena. Researchers are required to assist replication of empirical results by providing copies of data and programs online. Algorithms and rapid communications are also published.
期刊最新文献
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