Developing a Process Driven Morphological Model for Long Term Evolution of a Dynamic Coastal Embayment

Numerical modelling of coastal morphology is a complex and sometimes unrewarding exercise and often not yielding tangible results. Typically, the underlying drivers of morphology are not properly accounted for in numerical models. Such inaccuracies combined with a paucity of validation data create a difficulty for coastal planners/engineers who are required to interpret such morphological models to develop coastal management strategies. This study develops an approach to long term morphological modelling of a barrier beach system that includes the findings of over 10 years of coastal monitoring on a dynamic coastal system. The novel approach to predicting the long term evolution of the area combines a mix of short term hydrodynamic monitoring and long term morphological modelling to predict future changes in a breached barrier system. A coupled wave, wind, hydrodynamic and sediment transport numerical model was used to predict the coastal evolution in the dynamic barrier beach system of Inner Dingle Bay, Co. Kerry, Ireland. The modelling approach utilizes the schematisation of inputs to reflect observed trends. The approach is subject to two stages of validation both quantitative and qualitative. The study highlights the importance of considering all the parameters responsible for driving coastal evolution and the necessity to have long term monitoring results for trend based validation.