波兰农业生产的周期性波动

IF 0.9 Q4 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej Pub Date : 2018-12-21 DOI:10.30858/zer/100714
A. Jędruchniewicz
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摘要

该研究的主要目的是1991-2016年波兰农业商业周期的数量特征。文章的第一部分是农业周期波动理论。第二部分是实证分析。对农业经济周期的调查是基于总增加值和最终产出的年度动态。在附加值的基础上,可以确定四个完整的周期:(1)1996-2000;(2) 2001 - 2006;(3) 2007 - 2012;(4) 2013 - 2015。使用最终输出,我们认为同样在这种情况下,可以确定四个周期:(1)到2000;(2) 2001 - 2006;(3) 2007 - 2010;(4) 2011 - 2015。周期通常为3-6年。然而,这些阶段通常持续2到4年。在分析的基础上,还得出结论,总增加值的整个周期及其各个阶段的幅度,在绝对值上总是高于最后生产周期和各个阶段的幅度。总增加值周期的绝对振幅在2013-2015年最大。
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CYCLICAL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE PRODUCTION OF POLISH AGRICULTURE
The main objective of the study is the quantitative characteristics of the business cycle in agriculture in Poland in 1991-2016. The first part of the article is devoted to the theory of cyclical fluctuations in the agriculture. The second part includes an empirical analysis. The investigation of the agricultural business cycle is based on the year-to-year dynamics of the gross value added and final output. On the basis of the added value it was possible to identify four full cycles: (1) 1996-2000; (2) 2001-2006; (3) 2007-2012; (4) 2013-2015. using the final output, it was considered that also in this case, four cycles can be determined: (1) up to 2000; (2) 2001-2006; (3) 2007-2010; (4) 2011-2015. The cycles’ duration was usually 3-6 years. however, the phases most frequently lasted from 2 to 4 years. On the basis of the analysis, it was also concluded that the amplitude of the entire cycle of gross value added as well as of its individual phases was always, in absolute terms, higher than the amplitude of the final production cycle and phases. The highest absolute amplitude was observed for the cycle of gross value added in 2013-2015.
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