Does China’s Case Falsify Modernization Theory? Interim Assessment

ABSTRACT This study revisits the question of whether China's economic development has brought democratic changes within the country or not. While the modernization theory suggests that economic development should lead to democratization, scholars claim that China has not made democratic progress despite its economic growth. By comparing these two competing perspectives and examining the evidence behind each assessment, I argue that there has been a certain degree of democratic progress in China, in terms of increasing social aspirations for a more open and free society among the Chinese people. I explain why and how scholars reach different conclusions about democratic progress in China, and emphasize the importance of understanding discrepancies between (1) the lack of change in the state’s system, (2) oscillation between liberal and illiberal policies, and (3) progressive changes in society. This article draws on previous studies and data from the World Value System, Varieties of Democracy, and Asian Barometer projects. It also discusses how Chinese people's local understanding of democracy affects the assessment of modernization theory's applicability in explaining China's case.