关于1500年以前等概率的说明

Pub Date : 2022-06-16 DOI:10.1163/15733823-20220042
M. Thakkar
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引用次数: 0

摘要

Rudolf Schuessler认为,16世纪的思想家们提出了一种等概率的概念,这种概念在1500年之前实际上是不存在的,这可能促成了1650年后不久数学概率的诞生。本文使用额外的文本证据来论证等概率的概念实际上在中世纪思想家中普遍存在。确实,在中世纪的文本中,相等概率的归属相对较少,但这可以在不假定概念盲点的情况下得到解释。
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A Note on Equiprobability Prior to 1500
Rudolf Schuessler has argued that sixteenth-century thinkers developed a concept of equal probability that was virtually absent before 1500 and that may have contributed to the birth of mathematical probability shortly after 1650. This note uses additional textual evidence to argue that the concept of equal probability was in fact generally available to medieval thinkers. It is true that ascriptions of equal probability are comparatively rare in medieval texts, but this can be explained without positing a conceptual blind spot.
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