{"title":"关于量化生物燃料碳足迹的不确定性来源:作物/原料、生命周期评价建模方法、土地利用变化和温室气体指标","authors":"M. Brandão, R. Heijungs, A. Cowie","doi":"10.18331/brj2022.9.2.2","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Biofuel systems may represent a promising strategy to combat climate change by replacing fossil fuels in electricity generation and transportation. First-generation biofuels from sugar and starch crops for ethanol (a gasoline substitute) and from oilseed crops for biodiesel (a petroleum diesel substitute) have come under increasing levels of scrutiny due to the uncertainty associated with the estimation of climate change impacts of biofuels, such as due to indirect effects on land use. This analysis estimates the magnitude of some uncertainty sources: i) crop/feedstock, ii) life cycle assessment (LCA) modelling approach, iii) land-use change (LUC), and iv) greenhouse gas (GHG) metrics. The metrics used for characterising the different GHGs (global warming potential-GWP and global temperature change potential-GTP at different time horizons) appeared not to play a significant role in explaining the variance in the carbon footprint of biofuels, as opposed to the crop/feedstock used, the inclusion/exclusion of LUC considerations, and the LCA modelling approach (p<0.001). The estimated climate footprint of biofuels is dependent on the latter three parameters and, thus, is context-specific. It is recommended that these parameters be dealt with in a manner consistent with the goal and scope of the study. In particular, it is essential to interpret the results of the carbon footprint of biofuel systems in light of the choices made in each of these sources of uncertainty, and sensitivity analysis is recommended to overcome their influence on the result.","PeriodicalId":46938,"journal":{"name":"Biofuel Research Journal-BRJ","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":14.4000,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"38","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"On quantifying sources of uncertainty in the carbon footprint of biofuels: crop/feedstock, LCA modelling approach, land-use change, and GHG metrics\",\"authors\":\"M. Brandão, R. Heijungs, A. Cowie\",\"doi\":\"10.18331/brj2022.9.2.2\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Biofuel systems may represent a promising strategy to combat climate change by replacing fossil fuels in electricity generation and transportation. First-generation biofuels from sugar and starch crops for ethanol (a gasoline substitute) and from oilseed crops for biodiesel (a petroleum diesel substitute) have come under increasing levels of scrutiny due to the uncertainty associated with the estimation of climate change impacts of biofuels, such as due to indirect effects on land use. This analysis estimates the magnitude of some uncertainty sources: i) crop/feedstock, ii) life cycle assessment (LCA) modelling approach, iii) land-use change (LUC), and iv) greenhouse gas (GHG) metrics. The metrics used for characterising the different GHGs (global warming potential-GWP and global temperature change potential-GTP at different time horizons) appeared not to play a significant role in explaining the variance in the carbon footprint of biofuels, as opposed to the crop/feedstock used, the inclusion/exclusion of LUC considerations, and the LCA modelling approach (p<0.001). The estimated climate footprint of biofuels is dependent on the latter three parameters and, thus, is context-specific. It is recommended that these parameters be dealt with in a manner consistent with the goal and scope of the study. In particular, it is essential to interpret the results of the carbon footprint of biofuel systems in light of the choices made in each of these sources of uncertainty, and sensitivity analysis is recommended to overcome their influence on the result.\",\"PeriodicalId\":46938,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Biofuel Research Journal-BRJ\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":14.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-06-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"38\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Biofuel Research Journal-BRJ\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.18331/brj2022.9.2.2\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENERGY & FUELS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Biofuel Research Journal-BRJ","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.18331/brj2022.9.2.2","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENERGY & FUELS","Score":null,"Total":0}
On quantifying sources of uncertainty in the carbon footprint of biofuels: crop/feedstock, LCA modelling approach, land-use change, and GHG metrics
Biofuel systems may represent a promising strategy to combat climate change by replacing fossil fuels in electricity generation and transportation. First-generation biofuels from sugar and starch crops for ethanol (a gasoline substitute) and from oilseed crops for biodiesel (a petroleum diesel substitute) have come under increasing levels of scrutiny due to the uncertainty associated with the estimation of climate change impacts of biofuels, such as due to indirect effects on land use. This analysis estimates the magnitude of some uncertainty sources: i) crop/feedstock, ii) life cycle assessment (LCA) modelling approach, iii) land-use change (LUC), and iv) greenhouse gas (GHG) metrics. The metrics used for characterising the different GHGs (global warming potential-GWP and global temperature change potential-GTP at different time horizons) appeared not to play a significant role in explaining the variance in the carbon footprint of biofuels, as opposed to the crop/feedstock used, the inclusion/exclusion of LUC considerations, and the LCA modelling approach (p<0.001). The estimated climate footprint of biofuels is dependent on the latter three parameters and, thus, is context-specific. It is recommended that these parameters be dealt with in a manner consistent with the goal and scope of the study. In particular, it is essential to interpret the results of the carbon footprint of biofuel systems in light of the choices made in each of these sources of uncertainty, and sensitivity analysis is recommended to overcome their influence on the result.
期刊介绍:
Biofuel Research Journal (BRJ) is a leading, peer-reviewed academic journal that focuses on high-quality research in the field of biofuels, bioproducts, and biomass-derived materials and technologies. The journal's primary goal is to contribute to the advancement of knowledge and understanding in the areas of sustainable energy solutions, environmental protection, and the circular economy. BRJ accepts various types of articles, including original research papers, review papers, case studies, short communications, and hypotheses. The specific areas covered by the journal include Biofuels and Bioproducts, Biomass Valorization, Biomass-Derived Materials for Energy and Storage Systems, Techno-Economic and Environmental Assessments, Climate Change and Sustainability, and Biofuels and Bioproducts in Circular Economy, among others. BRJ actively encourages interdisciplinary collaborations among researchers, engineers, scientists, policymakers, and industry experts to facilitate the adoption of sustainable energy solutions and promote a greener future. The journal maintains rigorous standards of peer review and editorial integrity to ensure that only impactful and high-quality research is published. Currently, BRJ is indexed by several prominent databases such as Web of Science, CAS Databases, Directory of Open Access Journals, Scimago Journal Rank, Scopus, Google Scholar, Elektronische Zeitschriftenbibliothek EZB, et al.