运用LASSO方法预测越南关税削减对海关收入的影响

L. Tuyết
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引用次数: 0

摘要

该研究评估了关税削减对越南海关收入波动的影响。研究数据的收集基于官方来源,即政府门户网站和世界银行网站,收集时间为2002年至2017年。本文采用LASSO (Least Absolute contraction and Selection Operator)线性回归模型对数据序列之间的关系进行估计和预测,从而得出回归方程,考虑各因素对海关收入的影响。结果证明,关税削减对海关收入没有负面影响。关税降低,进口营业额增加,进出口企业遵守税法的程度提高,走私和贸易欺诈行为减少。基于这些结论,本文提出了几项旨在确保越南未来海关收入的政策。从下文提供的调查结果来看,为了确保海关收入,越南政府应采取适当的政策来提高越南海关管理的效率;对海关的设施和人力资源进行准确规划和合理投资;建立合理的非关税壁垒,防止欺诈和滥用造成海关收入损失。
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Applying the LASSO method to predict the impact of tariff reductions on customs revenues in Vietnam
The study assesses the impact of tariff reductions on fluctuations in customs revenues in Vietnam. The collection of research data was based on the official sources, namely the Government’s Web Portal and the World Bank’s website, and took place between 2002 and 2017. This paper uses the LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) linear regression model to estimate and predict the relationship of data series, thereby drawing a regression equation to consider the impact of various factors on customs revenues. The results have proven that tariff reductions have no negative impact on customs revenues. When tariffs are reduced, import turnover increases, the level of compliance with tax laws by import-export enterprises increases, and smuggling and trade fraud decrease. Based on these conclusions, the paper proposes several policies aimed at ensuring future customs revenues in Vietnam. As follows from the findings provided below, in order to ensure customs revenues, the Vietnamese Government should introduce appropriate policies to improve the efficiency of customs management in Vietnam; envisage accurate planning and reasonable investment for the customs office in terms of facilities and human resources; establish reasonable non-tariff barriers to prevent fraud and abuse causing losses in customs revenues.
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