中国农产品出口碳排放的因子分解

Yuqin Dai, Zhongchao Feng, Xiaoxun Ouyang
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摘要

建立投入产出模型,计算2001-2013年中国农产品出口碳排放量及其在中国农业部门的分布。然后将中国农产品出口碳排放增长的影响因素分解为规模效应、结构效应和技术效应,并通过LMDI模型进行整体和分段分析。实证结果表明,规模效应是中国农产品出口碳排放上升的主要原因。技术效应是抑制农产品隐含碳排放增长的最主要因素。但由于中国农业部门的能源刚性需求和能源消费强度的增加,并不一定导致农产品隐含碳排放量的下降。结构效应对中国农产品出口碳排放变化的影响尚不显著。
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Factors decomposition of carbon emissions embodied in China's agricultural export
An input-output model is established to calculate the volume of carbon emissions embodied in China's agricultural export and its distribution in China's agricultural sectors during the period of 2001-2013. The contributing factors in growth of carbon emissions embodied in China's agricultural export is then decomposed into scale effect, structure effect and technical effect, with which overall and sectional analysis are made through LMDI model. The empirical results show that scale effect is the main reason for the rise of carbon emissions embodied in China's agricultural export. Technical effect is the most important factor to inhibit the growth of embodied carbon emissions from agricultural export products. But it does not necessarily lead to a drop of embodied carbon emissions of agricultural products due to the increases of the rigid demand for energy and intensity of energy consumption in China's agricultural sectors. The influence of structure effect on changes of carbon emissions embodied in China's agricultural export remains less significant so far.
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