Are homicides and robberies associated with mortality due to COVID-19? Lessons from Urban Mexico

Studies on the symbiosis of crime and COVID-19 have analyzed governmentmandated lockdown effects. However, it is unknown to what extent previous crime rates determined a larger and more mortal spread of the pandemic. We study how homicides and robberies in the pre-pandemic year of 2019 are associated with 2020 mortality rates due to COVID-19 in urban municipalities in Mexico. Considering sex differentials in health, exposure to the virus and experiences of violence, we study whether gender differences in mortality exist in 2020. Using publicly available data on deaths due to COVID-19 provided by the Mexican Secretariat of Health, along with a series of indicators to characterize local pre-pandemic conditions of urban municipalities, we estimate a series of ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models on age-standardized crude death rates (ASCDR) by sex. Findings show that homicides—a proxy for criminal violence that might encourage people to stay home—show significant negative associations with mortality rates. Comparatively, robberies—a proxy of local violence and safety—were positively associated with mortality rates for both sexes. Sex differences in the determinants of ASCDR are discussed.