债券投资者比信用评级机构更了解吗?

M. Livingston, Yao Zheng, Lei Zhou
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文考察了债券投资者发现和调整潜在偏见信用评级的能力。研究发现,有证据表明,投资者要求评级向上偏的债券有更高的收益率差,而且不寻常的收益率差距对债券发行后3年内的评级变化和违约具有预测能力。收益率差异常高的债券被降级(升级)的可能性更大(更小)。此外,这些债券的3年期违约率是收益率差异常低的债券的2.5倍。这些发现表明,收益率差可能比评级更能衡量信贷风险。
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Do Bond Investors Know Better than the Credit Rating Agencies?
This article examines the ability of bond investors to detect and adjust for potentially biased credit ratings. It finds evidence that investors require higher yield spreads on bonds with upwardly biased ratings, and that unusual yield spreads have predictive power for rating changes and defaults within 3 years of bond issuance. Bonds with unusually high yield spreads are more (less) likely to be downgraded (upgraded). Furthermore, 3-year default rates for those bonds are 2.5 times those of bonds with unusually low yield spreads. These findings suggest that yield spread could be a better measure of credit risk than ratings.
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来源期刊
Journal of Fixed Income
Journal of Fixed Income Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics and Econometrics
CiteScore
1.10
自引率
0.00%
发文量
23
期刊介绍: The Journal of Fixed Income (JFI) provides sophisticated analytical research and case studies on bond instruments of all types – investment grade, high-yield, municipals, ABSs and MBSs, and structured products like CDOs and credit derivatives. Industry experts offer detailed models and analysis on fixed income structuring, performance tracking, and risk management. JFI keeps you on the front line of fixed income practices by: •Staying current on the cutting edge of fixed income markets •Managing your bond portfolios more efficiently •Evaluating interest rate strategies and manage interest rate risk •Gaining insights into the risk profile of structured products.
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