欧盟农场牛奶价格季节性模式的变化

Jakub Olipra
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引用次数: 1

摘要

自2007年以来,欧盟的牛奶价格变得更加不稳定,其季节性模式也不再那么明显。本研究的目的是检验一个假设,即季节性在欧盟农场牛奶价格的形成中仍然起着重要作用,而其幅度随着欧盟牛奶市场与全球市场的日益一体化而下降。本文采用普查局X-12价格分解程序和面板随机效应模型对上述问题进行了研究。研究结果表明,2007年以后,季节性因素在决定欧盟奶场价格中的作用显著下降,部分原因是欧盟奶市场与全球市场一体化程度的提高。然而,季节性仍然是决定欧盟农场奶价格的重要因素。可以预期,随着牛奶市场的进一步全球化,季节性在决定欧盟农场牛奶价格中的重要性将会减弱。
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Change in Seasonality Pattern of EU Farmgate Milk Price
Since 2007 farmgate milk prices in EU have become much more volatile and their seasonal pattern has stopped being so explicit. The purpose of this research is to test the hypothesis that seasonality still plays an important role in shaping farmgate milk prices in EU while its amplitude decreases together with the growing integration of the EU milk market with the global market. The aforementioned issues are investigated using Census X-12 procedure of price decomposition and panel random effects model. The results indicate that after 2007 the role of seasonality in determining EU farmgate milk prices has significantly decreased which partially results from the higher integration of the EU milk market with the global market. Nevertheless, seasonality remains an important factor determining the farmgate milk prices in EU. It can be expected that with the further globalization of the milk market, the significance of seasonality in determining farmgate milk prices in EU will be diminishing.
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审稿时长
8 weeks
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