Satiation and cross promotion: Selling and swapping users in mobile games

One of the main challenges facing the mobile game industry is an alarming level of satiation, that is, a decline in user engagement and consequently in ad viewing, spending, and retention. Satiation lowers users’ CLV to an extent that renders acquisition from the likes of Facebook and Google untenable, driving game publishers to cross-promote, that is, sell and swap users among themselves. We model this cross-promotion as first, a screening mechanism, in that the fact of playing a game indicates specific preferences that might be suitable to an exchange with similar games; and second, as a resetting mechanism that enables the swapped users to reset their engagement in the new game, thus rendering the swap or sell beneficial to both buyer and seller. We show that there exists an optimal level of satiation with a game, and with this level, we show the conditions under which the game publisher cross promotes, and when it does, what the conditions are for selling rather than swapping. We extend the analysis to the case in which advertising costs and conversion rates are related; explain why they might be negatively correlated, and show that our main results still hold.