Uncertain Self in a Changing World: A Foundation for Radicalisation, Populism, and Autocratic Leadership

ABSTRACT We live in a changing world that can create uncertainty about who we are, and make extremist groups, identities and ideologies attractive to us. This article invokes uncertainty-identity theory to explore the role played by context-induced self-uncertainty in radicalization, violent extremism, and support for populist ideologies and autocratic leadership. Uncertainty-identity theory argues that people are motivated to reduce self and identity uncertainty, and that group identification satisfies this motivation. However, some groups and identities are more effective than others. Specifically, highly entitative groups with clearly defined prescriptive identities that are unambiguous and consensual – identities that echo populist ideology, conspiracy theories and victimhood narratives. Self-uncertainty creates a need for leadership, in particular leaders who are populist, autocratic and toxic. I introduce uncertainty-identity theory to focus on its account of “extremism” – overviewing empirical support, and closing with discussion of warning signs of radicalization and speculations about preventative strategies.