证据支持与概率增加相同吗?

Tamaz Tokhadze
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引用次数: 0

摘要

证据支持通常等同于确认,其中证据支持假设H,当且仅当它增加了H的概率。本文反对这种公认的观点。正如作者所表明的,支持是一个比较概念,因为概率的增加不是。一条证据可以证实H,但它可以在相同或更大程度上证实H的替代品;在这种情况下,得出证据支持H的结论充其量是一种误导。作者提出了另一种观点,用确认程度的衡量标准来定义支持。所提出的观点既具有充分的可比较性,又能够适应支持概率方面的增加。作者得出的结论是,所提出的支持的测量理论方法提供了一种优于标准验证方法的替代方法。
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Is Evidential Support the Same as Increase-in-Probability?
Evidential support is often equated with confirmation, where evidence supports hypothesis H if and only if it increases the probability of H. This article argues against this received view. As the author shows, support is a comparative notion in the sense that increase-in-probability is not. A piece of evidence can confirm H, but it can confirm alternatives to H to the same or greater degree; and in such cases, it is at best misleading to conclude that the evidence supports H. The author puts forward an alternative view that defines support in terms of measures of degree of confirmation. The proposed view is both sufficiently comparative and able to accommodate the increase-in-probability aspect of support. The author concludes that the proposed measure-theoretic approach to support provides a superior alternative to the standard confirmatory approach.
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