Stand-level growth models for long-term projections of the main species groups in Norway

ABSTRACT Stand-level growth and yield models are important tools that support forest managers and policymakers. We used recent data from the Norwegian National Forest Inventory to develop stand-level models, with components for dominant height, survival (number of survived trees), ingrowth (number of recruited trees), basal area, and total volume, that can predict long-term stand dynamics (i.e. 150 years) for the main species in Norway, namely Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), and birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh. and Betula pendula Roth). The data used represent the structurally heterogeneous forests found throughout Norway with a wide range of ages, tree size mixtures, and management intensities. This represents an important alternative to the use of dedicated and closely monitored long-term experiments established in single species even-aged forests for the purpose of building these stand-level models. Model examination by means of various fit statistics indicated that the models were unbiased, performed well within the data range and extrapolated to biologically plausible patterns. The proposed models have great potential to form the foundation for more sophisticated models, in which the influence of other factors such as natural disturbances, stand structure including species mixtures, and management practices can be included.